DJBEINO: re "SIA report"
Obviously, this is data that I pay a lot of attention to and do some pretty detailed work on. What's interesting is that when you put the monthly data on a weekly basis (the reporting "months" are 4-4-5 weeks in each quarter, so March, June, September and December are not comparable to the other months when in the raw state), June shipments were at the lowest rate this year. I haven't analyzed the June product detail yet, but my guess is that ASPs for microprocessors (per the INTC report) and DRAMs have pulled the overall data down.
With half the year now in the bag, my model calls for annual revenues for the industry to be up 10% this year. Over the past few months, consensus has gone up to about 14%. I guess I could happen (and the current DRAM price rebound doesn't hurt), but that assumes that the current order binge doesn't run out of steam. All the evidence supports inventory buildup as the primary order driver, so sustainability of some of the wilder numbers should be questioned.
Some sort of a pause towards the end of this year would actually be helpful, as it would reduce the odds of excess capacity being brought onstream too rapidly. - Tad LaFountain |
