Tom--
I hope not, too. On the positive side: yes, the market fell apart Thursday in part due to the long bond yield going above 7% and sticking (did the same on Wednesday, but then rallied and equities (Nasdaq equities, at least) surged even more toward the close. BUT on Thursday other factors came into play as well: the fact that many traders had taken a head start on the holiday weekend, and the fact that most traders don't like to hold big positions over a weekend, especially a long weekend. And then there was the Big Unforseen Event: the collapse (temporary, we hope) of the Toronto exchange in the wake of the Bre-X mess. Put it all together, you got extreme poopiness, but perhaps nothing terminal.
On the negative side: rising interest rates are not good for the market. Ever.
Until there's a general perception that there'll only be one more hike (and there will be, alas), things won't be wonderful. In this climate, any unforseen bad karma--say, problems with the Hong Kong transfer--could spark a major selloff.
So we'll see. Rainsford's not feeling very bullish about the Bradley Siderograph, but says he wants another day or to to be sure...
Janice |
