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Strategies & Market Trends : Z PORTFOLIO

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To: Susan Saline who wrote (3022)	8/6/1999 1:42:00 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) of 11568

ALSC. Sue, I'm by no means always right, but I don't like semiconductor stocks from the long side right now. The SOX nailed it's upside target a few weeks ago and analysts are mostly bullish. There are a lot of warning signs on the table that the SOX has topped for this business cycle and I'm looking for a 9 to 12 month bear market in the sector. Semiconductor stocks might consolidate during this period rather than suffer a bear market like in 1998, but I think the upside is limited. Even if my forecast for the sector turns out to be right, some stocks could buck the trend and I have no particular beef with ALSC. From a chart perspective, the stock has resistance between 10 and 10 1/2. I recommend that you run like he*l if it trades to that area or if it falls below 7 3/4. The risk:reward doesn't look compelling for a short term trade. Best of luck with ALSC. I'm only sharing my honest opinion on the semiconductor sector, and not dogging the stock. Dan

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