Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (533)	3/28/1997 5:37:00 PM
From: Staff	of 6136

I was having some problems with the posting to various threads and the JUNK comment was to be directed to a stock Vivus. VVUS the new get a woody drug is a scam which I think is JUNK!!! The only thing I could call junk about this company is it's current price level. Junk would be inappropriate as well. It's overvalued and searching for a price level to stabilize at. As ofor you other questions I'm no specialist- just a trader- I have some experience and will do my best to tell give you my reasoning and why I feel as I do.... I welcome you to let me know where I am way off base if that is the process. I do not claim to be the almighty knower of all- thats why I'm here - to gather information. I rely on input from some analysts and their feeling about the drug- the industry and the companies long term potential. They seem to believe that the company is overvalued by 30 to 40%. They do not feel this company ( 125 people) can NOT compete against the established giants over the long haul. They are the new glamor kid on the block and have received the notoriety associated with bing new. That has a tendency to fad as soon as the next wonder drug hits the market. Usually in about another 3 to 6 months. Merk dominates the protease market with about 72% share I beleive with Hoffman-La Roche's Protease drug having the balance. Abbott on the other hand (even with the size they are )- I believe a non factor in this market with ABT. Glaxo Wellcome PLC (GLX)) has greater than 50% share of the 2 billion AIDS therapy market today ( WITHOUT a protease inhibitor). I hear by year end Glaxo will have it's own member of the class delivered ( via Vertex) I understand this to come to pass possibly as soon as 1st quarter of next year or 2nd quarter at latest. maybe you have some insight on this - I'm just ogoing by what I understand to be accepted in general here. Is Agourons Viracept the best of the protease products out there?? That's the million or should I say billion dollar question . Maybe today- but what in about 3 or 6 months... Thats the danger here. Viracept and Crixivan I am told are equally effective at keeping the amount of the virus in the blood down. Agourons appears to have less side effects. This is still debatable but should know as time progresses. The main problem I have with it is that a small drug company has a very difficult time making it in a a market controlled by giants like those listed above. New drugs in this sector create a lot of excitement and have much euphoria abound when they hit the market. I believe this is the case here as the price I believe got way ahead of reality. As time passes I believe this stock will fall in value to more reasonable levels. Also new drugs are coming on the market every 3 to 6 months now. All promising a bigger and better with less side effects. A company this small is a little fish in a big ocean of pharmaceutical giants. It will be a tough road for them to stay afloat in a very very competitive environment with such well financed giants as competitors. But then- hey! - they just may be the next giant themselves- time will tell. If their product is successful - at best I would anticipate them as a potential take over target. This would make sense but I don't think they could get what the company is currently trading for on the board. $20.00 - $25.00 I think may be reasonable. I just pull those numbers out of the blue. I have no reason for that just basing it on market share and the ability of the company to stay competitive. Expensive process in the drug industry. I feel the market has demonstrated via it's volatility level that it is trying but has not yet found a comfortable value level. My guess being short is that it is simply at a lower level than current pricing. SMTG was quite a fascinating story. I too once owned it. I know several investors that have owned it for years. Many had several thousand shares in their portfolio's. I really thought the testing and the Lilly alliance looked good. Find it hard to believe it fell apart the way it did. Northfields cleansing process was one I never thought =much of but I did thing SMTG has a terrific potential.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next