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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (7543)8/6/1999 3:51:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
MGJ: If you can figure out a scenario where the long bond drops, you can bet that the stock market will at least get a woodie short term with those earnings prospects. For example, if the bond market is convinced that the Fed. is ahead of the curve and we get some leading economic indicators that are soft and the Fed. does any tightening job in a responsible fashion, we could get a rally to test the highs. We may have to get beyond August 24th before this can make a meaningful move although a rising market in anticipation of the meeting has a better than even probability IMO.

But we must consider the possibility that we may get an air pocket in earnings as the Fed. or the bond market will slow this economy one way or another. Any air pocket would not occur until next year sometime.
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