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Strategies & Market Trends : Watching the market collapse
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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (93)8/6/1999 8:57:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) of 150
 
Jorj, GZ and a cycle low prediction for today are among the things that weigh against further declines - in fact, arguments for both an imminent turn and a total collapse can be made at this point. if we turn around i can see us rallying into expiration, make a lower high and turn back down from there...as i have mentioned before, that would be entirely consistent with historical precedent. i think most technicians would agree that some sort of bounce to relieve oversold conditions would be a high probability outcome for early next week. this is based on the assumption that we are still in a 'normal' market, the primary trend of which is still intact. however, today was the first time this year that the market failed to rally on the jobs data. if some exogenous event were to add to the nervousness in the market we could well march lower without pausing for breath. if you look at 5-minute bar charts of the Naz and the Indu, you can see what looks like an inverse h&s having formed in the last three trading days. also, today's intraday low in the SPX failed to go lower than yesterday's and the 200-dma continued to provide support, while the a/d line made a lower low. this is a positive divergence that could lead to a rally next week. otoh, the transports and the financials continue to merrily collapse, and may be more important in dictating near term direction. if we start rallying strongly on monday, GZ will be right...

hb
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