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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc

ATHM 24.06

+2.0%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Jing Qian who wrote (13695)	8/7/1999 1:31:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) of 29970

I kept my comments to your judgement of ATHM. You have a long way to go before you develop the skill to manage investment. You'll have to learn about buying on the way down the hard way. How it will work with ATHM is a rally will ensue and you will lose your concern about the downside. It is extremely hard to retain the objective attitude when everyone starts developing irrational exuberance. That's the fun of the stock market just like it is in the casino. Making money is not fun. If you're having fun, you're already starting to lose and you can't see it. Then the market and ATHM will get back on the main trend which I claim is down. ATHM is likely to break recent lows and this will make you even more pessimistic. Why am I so sure it will work out like this when I always say that no one can predict the future? Because this is the future that people are choosing. The evidence is that in spite of the fact that techs have had a nasty down move, there is very little bearish sentiment. I don't mean based on put/call and somebody's survey. Those are completely useless. All you have to do is go to any Net stock thread and what you see is hope. The market goes down until there is no hope. The future that is selected is the one that gets the market as far down as possible while hope still lives. This has nothing to do with the fundamentals of ATHM. The fundamentals can make ATHM vary in PE of 50, +-5, but sentiment can vary the PE +-20. So at the bottom based on my $.63/shr you're looking at a $20 stock ceteris paribus. For whom is this relevant? Anyone looking at the price more often than once every 3 years. 99% of stocks whose companies survive for 20 years see their stocks rise 50 to 100 times. If you start early and don't sell, getting rich in the stock is almost unavoidable. The alternative is nothing but a trail of tears ending up in Georgia. NSCP committed suicide for the same reason as Billy Budd. They both were too good and sacrificed themselves to prove unfairness exists in the world. I use both browsers. IE crashes Windows more often than NSCP. As a programmer I see NSCP with the solidity of a DOS-like product whereas IE is gui fumble-bumble. IE is faster, but not sharper. It is the difference between C++ and C. NSCP had the lead and has remarkably kept share though IE has the slightly bigger chunk. MSFT didn't make a better product, they gave their's away free because they had the financial lead from other products and that made NSCP believe they could not compete profitably. I don't believe that. NSCP was developing a vers for LINUX. Had they stayed with it, they could have turned tables against MSFT and used the browser to eat up MSFT's OS lead with an open systems NSCP Linux OS, NETUX. Netux would have swept the world in five years and MSFT would be bagged by the structure of false success of Windows. Windows is a disgrace to programming, but Netux could have restored the confidence in the reliability of the machine. NSCP management flushed all that away because they were weaklings. Hope you see why I make a big deal about the loose rudder at ATHM.

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