G'day all - hi Steve, an excellent historical perspective. And indeed, the cycle of historicity can be difficult to break. However, IMHO, there are several wild cards that may, just may, help to break new grounds.
To begin with, while a few powerful cliques allying themselves with Taiwan is a possibility, this may be not in the card for the time being. China being China, I'd imagine that key positions even in regional areas are occupied by people with connections to the central govt. Additionally, some of them are likely to be also connected to PLA. So, to say the least, any alliance with Taiwan would trigger violent fragmentations politically as well as militarily.
As a side note, according to my informants, the most prosperous is the special zones, and not the old financial epicenter like Shanghai.
Another departure from history is the ability to rule a vast territory with or without the new found technological advances. Granted that China is still backward by most standards, the more it modernizes, the better it will be able to get itself into the new world order of civility, kicking and screaming notwithstanding. I mean, as the saying goes, "the mountain is high and the emperor is far away." Not anymore. Fiber optics and G3 will replace the pony express and bare foot doctors alike, if they are deployed properly,
Unfortunately, despite such excellent opportunity, I ve to agree with you that its behavior still resembles its feudal past. And indeed, its bloody suppression of minorities etc is symptomatic to its paranoia. The funny thing is that while power struggle is nothing new, ancient and contemporay China alike. Remember that 1st decrees from the 1st Ming Emperor, Chu Yuan Chuang? To kill all his most capable advisors! The only difference then and now is that the current regime doesn't really have a charismatic leader. I mean, regardless of one's feelings about Mao, Chiang or even Deng, they were charismatic people. People were willing to die for them. Why, how else can a Shanghai stockbroker rose to the rank of generalissimo <G>! Well, the last Chinese hero [in my book] is living in California [I think] and his name is Chiang Hsu-leong ["learning kind".] But I digress <SG>!
I don't know about Taiwan [I do like its legislature though, when they disagree, they duke it out with fistfight <VBG>,] but China will need more time to replenish itself after the debilitating Cultural Revolution. So, I don't think it is the fear of *succession* as much as the fear itself.
Personally, I'd like to see there is someone[s] coming out from the left field to assume the leadership position and to resume the 3 democracy doctrine. Maybe the US style federalism is not a bad model, to the dismay of some of our friends here on this very forum who complain about it days in and days out <VBG>. Is it too much to ask? I ve no answer.
best, Bosco |
