"For instance, remember when shots were fired inside the house of representatives? I was already short while everybody else in the office was still trying to figure out what was going on. For me, it was easy. Does violence in the hallowed halls cause stocks to go up or down?"
Interesting example. I suppose you saw the stocks you were trading go down. I wonder why, who was selling? Do you think the position trader who was up 50% in those stocks were? Did the pension and mutual funds people hit the sell buttons? Why should such an incident have anything to do with MSFT for example? Unless Bill Gates was the shooter.
When you see the momentary blips due to news that has no effect on the individual stock, I often wonder who would react like that. What mental process would cause someone to react? Fear? The sky is falling. Do we think Smart Money who ever that is pushed the button on this type of news? Are were they reacting to Dumb Money?
We will never know. Because with the millions of trades a day, the only ones we can be sure of is ours. I notice a tendancy for people, who use level II, to make the MMs and ECNs individuals fighting battles in a war. Aren't the trades they process trades placed by all of us. If mine broker uses NITE, aren't I NITE at that price level? Can anyone guess why I am selling or buying? Do Block trades have meaning? Can't someone sell and buy in increments of 1000 or 100 to total >10,000? If you see a 25,000 trade, how do you know where it came from and why it was made?
Scalping or trading the noise may produce returns but they don't seem to do the job. It might not be training or experience as much as method that causes so much failure. I think that anything less than a 10% move out of a trade is random.
But since you trade at one of these houses, you are a valuable asset to let us know what goes on there. I assume you are still there. What is the average roundtrips? what is average capital? What is cost of commissions to profits ratio? Why is that the route for anyone to go? |
