Island and Coastal Population Impacts: Inundations May Create Environmental Refugees
Global warming could force hundreds of millions of people to migrate from areas facing sea level rise, severe drought, or other severe climate impacts (Leggett, 1990, p. 128). Coupled with the existing problem of rapid population growth, regional and international migration due to the loss of "productive" land would exacerbate the hardship and stress for refugees and the communities to which they migrate. A recent study by Norman Myers for the Climate Institute indicates that environmental problems such as desertification, deforestation, and drought, have already driven at least 25 million people from their homelands worldwide (Myers, June 1995, p. 1). These "environmental refugees" comprise 44 percent of all refugees, and their numbers could dramatically increase as environmental problems continue to grow.
Worldwide, it is predicted that hundreds of millions of people will be displaced by the effects of climate change (Leggett, 1990, p. 128). The economic costs of migration depend on a number of factors, such as how far refugees must travel and whether the areas to which they travel are willing or able to accommodate them. Host countries must incur direct maintenance and resettlement costs for refugees, as well as indirect costs such as outlays to counter diseases. Migration to cities due to reductions in agricultural productivity and other problems in rural areas could lead to increased unemployment and other stresses associated with rapid urbanization.
In addition to the economic costs, there are a number of social costs associated with population migration. For example, increased migration could expose the hosts and/or refugees to new infectious diseases against which they have no natural immunity. As they leave their homelands, refugees may leave behind places of cultural, religious or historic significance. Without ancestral burial grounds or holy sites their culture may change or disappear, causing enormous anxiety and adversity.
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