bobby, that's exactly my point. During this tenacious bull run, everytime we got to oversold levels, the bull has found a way to rally. 9 day RSI, McClellan Oscillator, 10 day averages of the NYSE A/D Ratio and rate of change and others. This "Looks like the perfect low for the market to go long". Except for one thing:
When sentiment really does change from bull to bear, as I believe it has, brief intermittant rallys off prior low supports are followed immediately by more selling and lower lows. When technical indicators get oversold like they have been for the last several days yet the stock averages fail to mount any significant rally off the lows, it becomes the start of a new trend - a BEAR TREND.
To put it more bluntly, when the bull troops (the broad market)don't want to fight the battle for Nirvana heaven anymore, the generals are the last to fight (INTC, MSFT, IBM). And when the generals can't bullshit the troops to keep on fighting for the mother bull, its high time before the generals fall in line to take the fall. The troops now total about 50,000 net new declines over advances since last APRIL of 98'. The worst (longest) breadth negative non-confirmation as measured by the NYSE A/D Index was a 16 month lead time before the market collapsed - that period was in 1972-1973 before the commencement of the 45% Bear Market Decline. We are now approaching month 16 to match that feat.
Best, J.T. |
