MG, As usual, a great analysis of the various Indexes.
Let me first go into the Big Boyz in some detail. As I have
referenced there are 65 of them. The Big Boyz have in the past, and I
suspect, will in the future, outperformed my benchmark Index, the S&P
500.
I utilize Morningstar's categories to break them down. Thus, I get ten categories. They are:
Consumer Durables - 4 Cos - ALD. F, GM and GT
Consumer Staples - 5 Cos - G, KO, MO, PEP, and PG
Energy - 3 Cos - CHV, MOB, and XON
Financial - 10 Cos - AIG, ALL, AXP, C, CMB, FNM, FTU, JPM, MWD and ONE
Health Care - 9 Cos - ABT, AHP, BMY, JNJ, LLY, MRK, PFE, SGP, and WLA
Industrial Cyclicals - 10 Cos - AA, BA, CAT, DD, EK, GE, IP, MMM, UK,
and UTX
Retail - 4 Cos - HD, MCD, S, and WMT
Service - 2 Cos - DIS AND TWX
Technology - 11 Cos - AOL, CPQ, CSCO, DELL, EMC, HWP, IBM,
INTC, LU, MSFT, and ORCL
Telecom - 7 Cos - AIT, BEL, BLS, GTE, SBC, T, and WCOM
Let's look at the performance of these categories from 12/31/98, and
two arbitrary dates 4/30/99 and 6/25/99:
INVESTMENT RETURN SINCE
CATEGORY 12/31/98 4/30/99 6/25/99
Consumer Durables 9.7% - 4.8% -5.1%
Consumer Staples -11.5% - 5.0% 1.0%
Energy 14.6% - 2.9% 6.2%
Financials 5.7% -10.1% -3.5%
Health Care -13.7% -10.1% -4.3%
Industrial Cyclicals 29.9% 2.4% 5.6%
Retail - 1.0% - 7.6% -4.7%
Service - 1.7% -10.4% -4.4%
Technology 19.5% 8.9% 5.1%
Telecom 10.4% 6.7% 5.0%
S&P 500 5.8% - 2.6% -1.1%
The Big Boyz 8.2% - 1.9% .8%
Some miscellaneous observations of the categories:
Consumer Durables: ALD is scewing the results and F is a lagard.
Financials: A wild range YTD with C +28.3% and FTU -28.7%.
Health Care: Since 12/31 and 6/25, only JNJ is positive.
Industrial Cyclicals: EK has been the only loser in the category
since 12/31. Hard to believe that GE is
under-performing.
Retail: The sector is interest rate sensative or was it just over
valued?
Service: The performance of DIS is masking the good performance of
TWX.
Technology: The USA economy; only 1 loser from 12/31/98 (CPQ); two
losers from 4/30 (AOL and DELL); and 2 losers from 6/25
(AOL & LU).
I show the EMA for the group on a weekly basis to have 21 negative, as
opposed to only 12 three weeks ago. Clearly, both the Big Boyz and
the Market have been deteriorating. Interesting though, the median
weekly moving average by my computation has not changed.
Enjoy,
PBTB |
