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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications
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To: Timothy R. Tierney who wrote (6565)8/8/1999 10:35:00 AM
From: Lu_Xun  Read Replies (1) of 10852
 
I completely disagree with your "2 months to 10 weeks" time horizon for judging the success of G*. Remember that they don't even begin offering service anywhere in the world until early October and even then the service is likely to be available in only a few countries. The hard reality, as I understand it, is that the additional gateways necessary for truly worldwide service will be gradually rolled out over the following six to eight months. My opinion, therefore, is that all G* longs should brace themselves for revenue "disappointments" during that period because the real buildup in revenues won't occur until all the gateways are up and running and the SPs have had an adequate amount of time to market the system to their customers. All this is going to take TIME and G* investors like myself should be prepared to be PATIENT for the revenues to be realized.

Don't misunderstand me. I am NOT saying G* will fail. To the contrary, I am way long on GSTRF and LOR both. I am convinced that the demand is there and it is massive. But like any other new product or service, it is going to take time to market it. In the meantime, the stock prices of both GSTRF and LOR may take some significant hits as the impossibly high expectations of their investors for immediate success slam into the wall of reality.

Lu Xun
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