Henry Blodgett is the biggest 2 faced whimp ever to hit wall street. He says he is not as bullish now as he was six months ago....Could that be that he is loosing conviction because the market hasn't told him he is correct in a little while....Could it be that 6 months ago he worked at oppenheimer, where they have been very bullish on the group, and now he is immersed in Merryl who has been bearish on America for over a year.
This guy is young. He has no backbone...Before he picked up coverage of a few net stocks and became a success story, he was nothing more than an ordinary analyst.
I'm not arguing that his words carry a little weight, I am just pointing out that I don't think they should....He has no conviction.
Did this guy think 6 months ago that AOL would not have big competition....Maybe he didn't, I'm not suggesting he is smart....Everyone else knew their will always be competition for AOL customers, but the facts are what I would like to focus on......NO ONE has been able to compete for the masses.....If anything, msft giving away their service could even be a boon to AOL in the long run....The customers with no loyalty that are low margin AOL customers can leave and the AOL churn rate will improve while msft will attract the high cost, high churn customer that spends very little on the net......matter of fact, AOL shouldn't really care if msft gets all of those type of customers.
Friday, Prudential wrote a 9 page report discussing in detail why msft will not threaten AOL in the long run....If someone can post it today, it is an excellent counter argument to Blodgetts thought of the moment...If no one can post it today, I will do so tomorrow. |
