To All, High Tech Strategist review. Outstanding issue from Fred Hickey this month.
1. He mentioned it is possible that 3q will be the first ever sequential decline in online stock trading. It is still early, but it is possible with the internuts in trouble.
2. He wails on Amazon again. Fred calculates that at the current loss and spending rate, and the inability to sell their crappy stock in the market, Amazon is belly up in 2 years. I think that is a bit too pessimistic as they will certainly cut spending if bankruptcy looms, which would also cut their loss. But things are not good at this bloated trading sardine.
3. Hooray! At last somebody else recognizes that PC revenues fell in 1998. I was beginning to think I was the only one who could multiply sales by ASPs and that the calculator I found near the trash dumpster was doing me dirty. <g> Fred mentions that PC revenues fell 4.5% last year. My numbers are not that low, but maybe Fred has a better class dumpster near his house. <g>
4. At least one writer on this thread seems to think free PCs are a dying business. Fred noted that IBM's retail shipments of PCs last quarter fell year over year just because IBM didn't have an ISP "Free PC" scam in place. Au contraire, mon frere rabbit.
5. Even with the extremely easy comparisons with last year's 2Q, PC sales were only up 2% in 2q 1999. Some boom!
6. One quote for the Gorilla Game and other greater fool theory enthusiasts: "Eventually, the erroneous perception that investing is all about buying the best names at any price has to be destroyed." I have been saying that for awhile now and would just add, it will definitely happen and the folks who buy the best cos. at outrageous valuations will go belly up.
7. "Intel is the most overpriced megacap name of all time." C'mon, Fred, tell us where you'd buy it. <g> I love his comparisons to 1990-1996 "when Intel was still a growth stock." <g> He expects this bowwow to beat its 3Q
number due to lowering the expectations so greatly, but to stumble big against the tough 4Q comparison. I am not as sure about this quarter.
8. "Gateway's balance sheet reeks of exploding costs that haven't quite made it to the P&L. Yet!"
9. Another suckers' rally in the nifty techies if Dell's number is good this quarter (I've been predicting their last "good" quarter ever). After that, la deluge. If Dell should happen to miss, game, set and match for the sector.
10. Lots of space given the The Contrary Opinion Forum in soem place called Vergennes, Vermont. Bill Fleckenstein will be on the dais along with Fred. Why don't they hold these things in some decent place, like Houston? <g> |
