Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 147.19

-3.6%

Feb 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: LindyBill who wrote (37811)	8/8/1999 12:29:00 PM
From: DaveMG	Read Replies (5) of 152472

I see no reason to believe that the market will pay less than 50 times earnings for Q. This gives us a price from 200 to 300 next year, no matter what direction the winds are blowing. What we have to watch out for is overall market PE compression due to "the changing winds", something which most likely even the Mighty Q is unlikely to be immune to. Even though I was a buyer last week because I also think the last earnings report IS NOT reflected in the stock price, the overall conditions are making me wonder whether I did the right thing. True enough, Q shook off the downdraft pretty well, but all it takes is some PE compression to say a forward PE of 40 and we're essentially at fair value right now. Those of you who've been around here for a while know that I'm a fan of ex CNBC tecnical analyst John Murphy and his website at murphymorris.com. They've got some interesting charts on their site this weekend which show that the top in internet stocks, interest sensitive groups like Banks and brokers, consumers, all coincide almost perfectly with the beginning of what is proving to be an uptrend in commodities and interests rates, and the stock groups that benefit from such a scenario. These are "winds" which we haven't seen in a while. One of the most disturbing charts shows a divergence between the DOW Transports and the Dow Industrials. I'm sure everyone remembers what happened last year. This time round the DOW and big tech has held up fairly well, SO FAR. What's next? The thing I find most troubling though is that if these are winds of change driven by world wide macro economic events, ( take a look at the dollar), then a market sellof might not result in the kind of bounce we've all become accustomed to. Mqaurice... Any idea how high the price of oil might go? Aren't we almost there yet? What's the URL for that oil industry web site you posted last year? Thanks... Dave

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