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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.00

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: J.T. who wrote (22429)	8/8/1999 3:02:00 PM
From: Gary105	Read Replies (1) of 99985

I believe market will move lower to test 200 d MA quote.yahoo.com^SPC&d=1ym At that point the real excitement will begin, ie does it bounce from that level or move significant lower. 87 crash occured when it closed below that level on a Thursday and failed to move up on Friday, before crashing on Monday. factors favoring significant retreat: lack of insider buying in most large caps, investor complacency, high p/es, increasing interest rates, failure to reappoint Greenspan (imo the administration is either politicizing his reappointment to try to pressure him to contain interest rates or else he has already decided that this is his last term - either way bad situation, arch crawford (who called 87 crash) very bearish for august, a/d line very bearish. factors against significant retreat: buy the dips mentality which should come into play at 200 d MA, possible soft landing resulting in extended bull that always stays overvalued, marty zweig (perpetual worrier) still bullish all imo, gary

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