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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gary105 who wrote (22450)	8/8/1999 3:49:00 PM
From: Don Green	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Terry Laundry turning Bearish Special Update August 7. The Long Term Trend Seems to be Turning Bearish The Advance-Decline Line has accelerated its recent downtrend to the extent that the first 6 months mutual fund (etc) gains for this year are dwindling enough for me to exit my long term positions rather than see them all disappear. This is not normal behavior for the 12th T and so I conclude it may be failing. However it will take a little longer to answer this question but I will not wait for money management reasons. More importantly, from a long term standpoint, am concerned that the technical problems in the 12th Advance-Decline T are a sign that the big Standard and Poors 500 T below is reaching the end of its ability to sustain prices to its projected peak date in early 2000 from the key 1987 low. We will have more data to work in the weeks ahead but it seems more likely that the 12th T is failing as a result and it would be best to be on the sidelines until the Advance-Decline line shows signs it has bottomed. Because this is potentially a long term T problem and stock prices are very extended, there are some good reasons to become defensive until the correction has run its course. I will update again after Monday with new daily charts. ttheory.com

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