I agree with you TRINDY, regarding near-term and medium-term outlooks, but the downside in September/October will probably need an external shock to plunge us below 200DMA. Meanwhile, take a look at NYSE cumulative weekly advance-decline line--we just broke to new lows! But the next few weeks should produce a move up, as we are very oversold and sentiment has turned too bearish. And we had a key reversal day on Thursday, which produced a lower low, and a close higher than the previous day's (Wednesday) close (key reversal) on stronger volume (particularly big on Nasdaq). There was also a big spike (one on Thursday and one on Tuesday) in my volume-weighted CBOE equity-only put/call daily ratio oscillator (very accurate regarding market turns), with the 10-day moving average flashing bullish. Friday gave a test of the lows, and despite the very negative job numbers, and long bond carnage, held. I am speaking about the major indices and averages, which I believe may move higher (not new highs, just retracement) now, especially if we climb above Friday's highs. An oversold rally is due, but as you point out correctly, investors may be reluctant to pile in again, especially given the damage done to Internets, and that we are now facing the traditionally bearish Autumn period.
John Summa
optionsnerd.com
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