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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 662.72+0.4%Nov 19 4:00 PM EST
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To: HairBall who wrote (22461)8/8/1999 7:06:00 PM
From: Smooth Drive  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
Hey LG,

The ole LG Overall Market Composite (OMC) took it on the chin all week and then reversed up on Friday. But -- it's a very weak reversal that I don't believe will hold and expect another reversal down with another sell signal.

                             *
1760                         X *
1750                         X O *
1740                         X O   * < Bearish Res Line
1730                         X O
1720                     X   X O
1710                     X O X O
1700                     X O X O
1690                     X O   O
1680                     7     O
1670                     X     O X
1660                     X     O X O
1650                     X     O X O
1640 X               X   X     O X O
1630 X O             X O X     O   O
1620 X O             X O X         8
1610 X O             X O X         O
1600 X O X           X O X         O X
1590 X O X O         X O           O X
1580 X O X O     X   X *           O X
1570 X O   O     X O X   *       + O X
1560 X     O     X O X     *   +   O X
1550       O     X O X       +     O
1540       O X   X O X     +   * +
1530       O X O X O X   +     + *
1520       O X O X O X +     +     *
1510       O X 6 X O +     +         * < Bearish Sup Line
1500       O X O X +     +
1490       O X O +     +
1480       O   +     + < 1st Bullish Resistance Line

Friday's close: 1579.50; 50 DMA is 1625.77; 150 DMA is 1556.18; and the 200 DMA is 1480.47

So far it's passed through a number of support points, both horizontal and trend lines, since its high of 1760 on 7/16/99. You can see that the 1st Bullish Resistance Line off the bottom held on Thursday. The official Bullish Support Line is sitting down at 1410.

The 1st Bearish vertical price objective is 1500, and the 2nd is 1370. This chart is long term bullish (trading above its Bullish Support Line down at 1390) and short term bearish (on a sell signal at 1620). The Bullish Support Line was formed at the low of 910 which happened on 10/8/98. The unofficial Bearish Resistance Line up at 1740 is not official but it is in in control.

The bad news with the S&P 500 5 X 15 P&F chart is the fact that it broke through its Bullish Support Line on Thursday and became long term bearish with the Bearish Resistance Line now official.

These trend charts, together with the fact that the New York Stock Exchange Bullish % reversed back down to Bear Confirmed on Wednesday -- well, I don't see much upside right now.

Take care,

Eric
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