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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 662.72

+0.4%

4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who wrote (22461)	8/8/1999 11:48:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Hi LG .. "Eric Stevens: Perhaps next time you'll ask for a sentence or two on why a person picks an answer. Hey Eric...nothing stopping you from giving your reasons...<g> " OK <G> mouthfull time: As I said .. I voted for #1 with the qualification that it may take a few weeks to make a new low .. To start with, I think that we will have a overall positive day tomorrow. (could be wrong .. been there, done that, grounded the kid for trying it) We are so oversold right now that any move up could well trigger the buy the dippers to start peeing their pants. Anyway: Data for Monday 8/9/99 Globex opening trigger values: Buy trigger : 111 (1308.11) Sell trigger : -322 (1303.78) Prem values for the day: buy trigger 7.82 fair value 5.78 sell trigger 3.49 Black fork tines: Upper : 1392.39 (92.1) Mid : 1356.82 (56.53) Lower : 1321.25 (20.96) Red fork tines: Upper : 1249.09 (-51.2) Mid : 1328.77 (28.48) Lower : 1408.46 (108.17) 16 day SMA 1338.82 (38.53 ) 20 day SMA 1357.58 (57.29 ) 36 day SMA 1359.37 (59.08 ) 50 day SMA 1343.97 (43.68 ) 138 day 1314.96 (14.67 ) A note about the slope of the 138 SMA. At this time this slope is just slightly positive: .000328 points per day. Very close to flat. At this time, if we maintain the current 16 day slope this SMA will turn negative on Friday the thirteenth. Two days after the solar eclipse on 8/11/99. This time frame can change a lot with each trading day .. for instance if we close up 10 points on the SPX the projection pushes out to 8/26. Historicaly the 138 day SMA turned south on 9/1/98 and returned back to positive on 11/10/98. The time before that it was negative was December of 94. Globex SPX futures seem to indicate a positive open. Currency futures seem to indicate follow through. These can change before the morning. However the trend seems to have been set for the day. Based on the above I expect to see: SPX to move up into the 9:45 time frame. Then dip or stay flat until ~10:10. Turn again north until ~11:10. The movement from 9:45 - 10:10 might show the direction for the afternoon.

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