Al, Technically there would be good reason to expect CTEC to cover that gap between 2 7/8 and 3 1/8, so we shouldn't be surprised if we get at least an intra-day drop to 2 7/8 --- sad to say.
beta.iqc.com
Seems to me we have to factors to contend with which are the significant reasons behind such a dismal performance by CTEC right here. First, CTEC has disappointed so many times, that a large number of shareholders have been looking for any excuse to bail out. The fact that CTEC did not soar past 5 when the company reported earnings of 5 cents (versus 2 cents predicted), and then followed up with the excellent news of an agreement with WLA's Parke-Davis unit for a pharmacy program -- well, the "many-times-disappointed" may just have taken that as a sign of more of the same, and jumped ship. Second, we are in an overall miserable market. The folks who would have used their Internet IPO profits to speculate in small caps with good stories are now looking at negative IPO "profits"....so they sure aren't going to pick up a few thou shares of CTEC.
Let's face it Al, this is going to be a long grind back up, while the company works it's butt off to regain some modicum of credibility.
I don't like it, and personally I thought we could get an initial kick back above 5 -- maybe 6 -- on a good earnings number. But I understand why it may take another quarter or two to get a decent move. Too many folks have been kicked in the teeth here...
Al, chart-wise, I would hazard a guess that the low end of that gap-- 2 7/8--- would be the lowest reasonable point to pick up more stock in the near term. I'm going to hold off any more purchases until we get a bit closer to earnings season again, however. There is a LOT of CTEC in my knapsack already -- but at a nice average price, to be sure.
Finally --- read that conference call report. a 30% growth rate here is somewhat below those REALLY optimistic numbers Yahoo research was reporting, but a 30% growth rate for a while would give us a chance for a PE above 40 when the numbers start clicking in, say, 18 months. Looking for earnings at a rate of, oh -- $.60/share annualized at that time.....and optimistically pushing that 40 PE, and we have a 24-dollar stock.....Halfway to my target <G>...
Cheers, Al.
tso |
