Solid. Don't misunderstand us here. I am arguing with Ahhaha about the long term trend from here to 2020. The answer to this question is critical to the behavior we treat our investment. Ahhaha thinks that we are facing a long down trend from here in spite of the tech advances, demographic peak of baby boomers, freedom of money and global openness. On the other hand, I believe in a long term uptrend powered by the same factor. I am not sure about how long Ahhaha's long term down trend is. If it be 3-5 years, may be he is right. But if he is saying that can extend to 10-20 years, no way in my mind that is going to be the case. However, after 2020, I still predict a uptrend from there, but I can't see so far from that point on. But the next 20 years we are pretty safe. All indications are pointing toward a continued prosperity, unless Aliens invade earth or major earth quake distroyed Silicon Valley.
But no matter what the trend will be, ATHM is a company in the best of time and the best place. The wind is blow in the direction of ATHM. As I've stated earlier, the management must screw up real bad to cause a failure, otherwise, it's hard for this company to fail. The more relevant question is how successful the company can end up to be, not whether it will disappear or not.
But first thing first, you must get the long term view correct. Otherwise, why do we even bother to invest? |
