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Technology Stocks : 2000: Y2K Civilized Discussion
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To: Jeff Mizer who wrote (51)8/9/1999 1:46:00 AM
From: foobert  Read Replies (1) of 662
 
Possibility vs probability.

Re:

techstocks.com

I also want to point out that the scanario described here looks to me like a "possibility". I can agree that many of the events people are predicting here are possible. The key point is: what is the probability of any event occuring? In this specific case, if we surveyed all the companies that manufacture ball bearings and did not find any Y2K compliancy statements, then we can conclude that there is a high probability of this particular scenario coming true. Even then, just because something has a high probability it is not certain that it will occur. Just as true is that it is not certain that because something has a low probability it will not occur. (have you bought a lottery ticket lately?)

Something else I have a problem with is the use of the domino theory to explain the problem. It assumes the failure of one component (the first domino falling) will automatically lead to the failure of all other components down the chain. It may be that some domino in the chain is compliant or unaffected by the failure of it's predecessor, and thus will not fall/fail.

Let me offer my "swiss cheese" model. Imagine a model of the SYSTEM (Ken's word) as a block of processed cheese. It is consistent and uniform throughout. The effect of Y2K changes that to a block of swiss cheese - relatively uniform, but now containing holes. The holes are of course the non-compliant components. In other words, the system still exists and works, as long as there is more cheese than hole in the whole block.

Just my cheesy thoughts.
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