heinz, DOW TO HIT 15,714: OR THE 50,000 STOCK SHORTFALL DILEMMA:
We know that we are down 50,000 stocks off the net new highs as measured by the NYSE A/D Index from April of '98. So lets play a little high low game. Option 1 or option 2??
1) If we ascribe 100 DOW points to every 1000 net new advances on the NYSE, and we get all the way back to even for new highs-because this is the mother of all bull markets -- that should give us 5,000 DOW points to look forward to from 10,714 and opah.. 15,714.
2) On the other hand, if we took just your choice, A) an additional 25,000 net new declines or B) ascribe 1000 points to (half) 25,000 net shortfall decline, we get a net decline of 2,500 or DOW 8,214.
And since we have now passed go on earnings bonanza season, we have to wait for more good earnings reports two months from now. What more do we have to look forward to between now and then? Two months to traders and boys in the pits is a lifetime. Oh, and then there is this meeting on the 24th i forgot about...
I can't make up my mind which one to choose.
Best, J.T.
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