MEMC INT'L. (WFR -NYSE) The Sleeping Giant? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : MEMC INT'L. (WFR -NYSE) The Sleeping Giant?

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To: John Cuthbertson who wrote (4445)	8/9/1999 8:20:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) of 4697

John, that could be. In the last CC of WFR they mentioned however that tightness was developing in smaller diameter (the part of the business everyone was trying to exit because of low profits). If you take the numbers thrown then (total Wafer sales last year of $5.2 Billions), and take the numbers from the Japanese article (total 8" capacity just under $4 billion), you'll get that 8" is about 50% of total capacity. I would have guessed that 8" was at least 65%, but I have no numbers to support this. Where is Odluvai when we need him? By the way, taking the $5.2 Billion as 60%, yields a total capacity of $8.8 billions, and since this year the semi will be about $146 billions, and we have a general "wafer content" rule that wafers do not take more than about 4% of end prices of semi (it was that last year), the current capacity (if it was well distributed over wafer size) could support end demand in semi of $220 Billions. So it seems that if there is any new trend, it should be, as WFR suggested, leveling of decline in prices, but a price rise of 10%? Maybe in some geographies and in the 8" segment only. Zeev

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