Pallisard,
I was not pessimistic, rather doing a reality check of the current situation. My reasons follow. Let us see if Aug 12 CC validates my prediction of VLNC response.
1) From observations of Thompson I-Watch...There must be a reason for not wanting the stock to fall too far at this point
In the absence of facts, this is a speculation. The facts may never be made public due to the (possible) legality involved.
2) The prospect for a Hanil-Samsung contract looks very promising...orders from Hanil...profits by year's end.
Agree, so indicated in my last message. Events seem to indicate Samsung's use of li poly battery from VLNC may happen soon. I expect delays since Hanil has not given any indications as to how ready their factory is to produce the final product for Samsung - batteries. This could be an area for probing in the CC.
3) Licensing of the technology is now more probable than ever.,,,
Pallisard, VLNC has the licensing potential, but it is a couple of years down the road. The management team does not have anyone looking into it now, probably because their priority is to keep the plant running to satisfy customer design programs.
4) It was indicated that the Alliant orders would only get larger
Agree, Alliant JV has potential. BUT VLNC is not directly working with the US military, only through Alliant JV. Alliant in the same boat as VLNC in terms of getting PO's because the timing will depend upon US military budgeting and purchasing dates. A positive development is VLNC battery has been qualified for use. Another area for probing during the CC.
5) The sale of Energizer was scheduled to be complete in July or Aug. Energizer has already tested and approved Valence batteries and the acquiring party will certainly want the product.
Pallisard, again we are speculating here. The only thing we know is that the Energizer is for sale. No one knows when the sale will be completed and how the new management will pursue VLNC battery. Remember, we are also approaching the y2k deadline in December. y2k compliance may cause delays.
I do not expect any response from VLNC on the Energizer or Motrola deals.
In a nutshell, I expect delays in VLNC PO's and VLNC may continue financing on a month-to-month basis until a substantial PO is given. This reality is reflected in the stock price, IMO. General market weakness and the y2k effect will make it worse if VLNC does not announce PO's soon. Sorry for the long post.
Ram |
