The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club

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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (7599)	8/9/1999 12:10:00 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (2) of 15132

Is this a buying opportunity in bonds now, as Kellner suggested in his somewhat idiotic "risk-free" column? Or are we going substantially lower? Does anyone besides me think that this talk about impending inflation is nonsense? There is too much capacity in world, with more available fairly quickly if demand asserts itself. If the US slows down, we will possibly face another worldwide financial crisis, this time perhaps a sprialing self-perpetuating crisis which will get deeper and longer than the last one. Raising rates aggressively now seems to me to be much more dangerous than leaving these already historically very high real rates where they are. I think these guys in the Fed want to convince themselves that they are/have been engineering prosperity rather than just being in the right place at the right time, and they may just manage to pull defeat out of the grasp of victory if they try to manipulate things too much. They should go read War and Peace and thank the gods that they are where they are when they are. IMHO.

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