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Bajasurf, regarding the lack of certainties in the study you highlighted, there are far too many variables in making good trading decisions to trust to a programmer. What parameters were used? As you probably know from your own experience, the variables are almost infinite, and require much experience and highly developed intuition. As just a single example, you can have the perfect setups on your charts, and if the underlying market falls away from you, you may make a trade in the wrong direction. Happens all the time. Was the computer programmed to appreciate the overall dynamics of the market and the current economic situation? Did it factor in the morning reports of fair value, and the probability of an interest rate hike in two weeks? Doubtful! That is why trading will always be a human endeavor. Because the market is moved by US, not by the strict laws of probability. If you are a new trader and need assurances that technical indicators will ALWAYS protect you, then you are looking in the wrong direction, because they will not. However, they are a very valuable tool when used as a part of your overall decision in trading direction and timing. |
