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Biotech / Medical : ARIAD Pharmaceuticals
ARIA 23.990.0%Feb 17 4:00 PM EST

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To: LLCF who wrote (629)8/9/1999 5:38:00 PM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (2) of 4474
 
David,

Let's assume the bad boy has shorted a million shares at 1 1/8. Now what is his incentive to wait more than 22 days before exercising and lock in his guaranteed profit? Remember the company has the right to redeem the convertible under certain circumstances, and so his position is not risk free. For example, if Hoechst decided to gobble ARIA, they would potentially be at risk.

My conclusion is that once they short they are likely to convert soon after, and so if they haven't converted they also probably haven't yet shorted. As you say this is good news/bad news - it means the holders aren't the "I'm outta here quick" guys, but it means that any selling pressure from them is still to come.

Peter
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