Jing,
This leaves ATHM a future of dumb pipe, although a lucrative one. But a dumb pipe company like is not what I like to see.
In fact, a lot of folks like to see that happen. If I remember correctly, E. Davies would love to see that happen. I personally don't see what's wrong with a picture of ATHM being a cable broadband of a MindSpring or a EarthLink, do you?
Actually, since day one of Excite and @Home merger news, there are strong voices against it, looks like an aggravation to me now, people got to vent their frustration of tanking stock price. If you haven't seen enough here, you sure can sense the mood on a few big ATHM believers in the Yahoo ATHM board. Calm down and think it through, ATHM is attacked all the time for very simple reasons?
1) Against AOL the gorilla. I am probably the only one here constantly bring AOL without an OT (Off Topic) sign in front of my message. Some leading contributors here don't think AOL is the issue, but time and time again it prove that discussing ATHM without closely referencing AOL's moves is like singing opera to a cow.
2) ATHM is, at this moment, the only ISP entitled to the cable pipe (not mentioning RR.) Constant attacks (rumors) from all other entities without the chance to ride the pipe is understandable. This belongs to the huge process of Open Access. The public needs time to absorb this. I quote a frequent SI contributor here referring open access... "DEREGULATION IS DEMOCRATIC!" - apparently, a confusion of socialism or communism at worst. Glad that FCC can see the picture.
3) Everyone wants to get rich fast, and they want to shape ATHM into a business model so to achieve that goal. A few young kids got out of college want to invest in the market, talking investment in value and long term is like talking Martian language to them. Everybody wants to get rich fast here in America (bull market doubles the fantasy), who is doing the dirty works to get them there? If this is the market sentiment, you know the market topped, and a fall is inevitable.
It's the resentment of Excite, give the opportunities (I don't mean people on this thread, instead, I mean the big guys on the Wall Street who know how to play games) the best shortcut to manipulate this stock with rumors. T has had talked to AOL for possible merge before TCI, there is no news there, and the continuation of exploring the possibilities to avoid court ruling always exists - this is not like Serbs fighting the Moslems. To buy Yahoo instead of Excite, I believe YHOO is about 7 times bigger in terms of market cap back then, and where is the money? Although, I personally think Yahoo has more potential than AOL. Now, Yahoo buys Excite to get the caching priority on ATHM, that's nothing but inviting another round of lawsuit, don't you think? Remember a few weeks ago the news that CSCO's equipment has the ability to give preferential access to different web pages? This will be opening another Box of Pandora for whichever company implementing it.
If I were T, I would focus on closing the MediaOne deal, knocking down Portland and Boward cases, and fulfilling the TCI@Home quota before year-end. Tell me, what else can top that? San Francisco ruling has already shown T's chance is stronger than ever. Will T be willing to risk for something unpredictable now? Common sense, isn't it? |
