Heinz, I greatly appreciate your contributions to this thread. Thought I would offer a few comments on current happenings. My own personal set of indicators (I attempt to identify trends) show considerable weakness and distinct negative trends in just about all major indices, with the exceptions of the DOW and UTIL. The latter are flat, at best, and have recently been in negative trends that are now moderating. One could even make an argument that the DOW should be bought here. Same for the UTIL.
I track three A/D signals. One is a cumulative advance/decline, another is volume weighted A/D, and a third is A/D weighted by the TRIN for that day. All are in considerable retreat, highly negative trends as you might expect from activity dating back to mid July. There has been essentially no moderating of these negative A/D trends since the reversal in mid-July.
Why the DOW has not been impacted to a greater degree is a curiosity, indeed. Big cap techs remain intact, as well. Unless we can get below 10,400 soon, in my estimation, there may not be much lower to go. Also it appears that we need to drop another 100 points on the NASDAQ to instill fear, doubt and loathing of the market. We are on the precipice, but it is not clear that we are going to fall off.
My surprise, and yours as well apparently, is how well the semis are holding up. It borders on the ridiculous for AMAT to be up +4 and INTC and MU are jokes, as well. As long as these stocks keep laughing off the broader market declines, I doubt we are going much lower on these broader averages.
The market is directionless at present, IMO. If the DOW and the big cap tech stocks demonstrate weakness, we could be in for another round of big-time down. I don't see it happening, but doubt that we are going to see any big time up either. We are in a quiet time of relative equilibrium on stocks. We can all use this breather to gather our thoughts and make plans for future trades. Frankly, I can use the rest.
Again, thanks for your contributions and keep them coming. |
