Mohan: Has your friend Abby Cohen been talking lately <G>? This is the latest update that I could find that contained her comments...
-----------------------------------------------------------
<<Goldman's Cohen Sees Gradual Rise in Stocks
New York, Aug. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman, Sachs & Co.
investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen forecast ''more
moderate'' gains for stocks in coming months, and said she
doesn't expect a bear market.
Previous bear markets were generally preceded by
overvaluation and ''catalyzed by deterioration in economic
performance, such as a significant rise in inflation or weakness
in corporate results,'' Cohen wrote in a report to clients. ''We
don't believe that either condition is in place.''
Cohen, one of Wall Street's most optimistic and accurate
strategists, said the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has reached
''fair value territory, suggesting that future price gains likely
occur in a more moderate fashion.''
Corporate profits will drive further gains, said Cohen.
Companies in the S&P 500 should ''easily'' meet her projection of
7-8 percent growth in operating earnings per share, she said.
Cohen said she will review her full-year profit forecast
when more complete data are available in coming weeks.
''Our valuation approaches suggest that the S&P 500 has
ranged between 5 percent undervalued and 5 percent overvalued
since March,'' Cohen said in a report to clients. ''In previous
cycles, overvaluation reached notably higher readings, typically
15 to 25 percent.''
Cohen's optimism contrasts with that of Barton Biggs, chief
global strategist for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. who said
last week the stock market could have '' a correction at
least and perhaps a cyclical bear market'' over the next two
months.
Cohen's current year-end target for Standard & Poor's 500 is
1325. The index gained 13.26 to 1341.99 in midday trading.
The index returned more than 20 percent annually for the
past four years, and is up 9 percent in 1999.>>
|
