Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 91.18

-4.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Don Green who wrote (26781)	8/10/1999 1:00:00 AM
From: Richard Habib	Read Replies (1) of 93625

Don, my problem with RMBS right now is that while I believe as others do that a breakdown into the 70's would seem to indicate a good buying opportunity in front of the Camino launch - I haven't been able to come up with a market scenario that I'm comfortable with. This weakness due to interest rates and summer doldrums may lead into a Y2K selloff. So a down or sideways market leading into a Y2K selloff of moderate proportion. The wild card for me is earnings which should be relatively good in tech stocks. An optimistic scenario is a sideways market with a tech rally on earnings followed by a sharp selloff before Y2K. That might yield good upside for RMBS and provide a good risk/reward ratio. Might also mention that if a significant pop doesn't occur on Camino, I could see a sell the news reaction and RMBS dropping back into the 70's which would be a bad thing for options holders. Lastly, I've been following all these nagging little international issues that could provide the catalyst no one sees coming to initiate a bear market. Still in cash. Have picked out a couple of high PE stocks whose up trends appear to be turning over for short candidates once I'm comfortable with a market scenario. As for Apple it's holding up well. While I don't think it will lead the boxmakers down like it has in the past in a weak market, I do think it may correct. PE on an operating basis is more like 30. Top line growth is low and this qtr may be close to flat in top and bottom growth. Lastly, I think the new iBook sales estimates I've been hearing are optimistic. I think I'll sit tight. See if it corrects in a month or so. Rich

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