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Probabilities, probabilities, probabilities, thats all that matters. The only one on this thread that has admitted that he knows the probabilities of his trades is Eric P. My point of bringing up "Random Walk Down Wall Streets" assertion that TA does not improve your odds is not that I want an indicator that ALWAYS works. I just want to know if anyone besides Eric has back tested the results of their set ups. Even trading the fade to a classic setup as Trader Alan likes to do is a "setup" All TA enthusiasts are looking at the same market action and every one is interpreting the results and deciding their course of action. Investors Business Daily promotes buying stocks that are breaking out to new highs on volume. Then you have others on the sidelines saying "aha, I'll short the inevitable fade back into conjestion. Obviously, each trader was looking at their impending trade through different perceptions. Some stocks breaking out on volume will continue higher. Some will fade. My point is, no matter what the trading period any of us are using, we are looking at something that we believe offers a clue which direction a stock is going to be moving in the next minute, hour, day or week. If we say that there are too many variables to evaluate then we are admitting that our ultimate decision is a guess. If we say that "YES INDEED, THERE ARE INDICATORS THAT I RELY ON, all I am saying is we should attempt to KNOW the PROBABILITIES inherent in them! All that you may know is "that its worked for me" and that may be enough for you. Anyway, there has been some good discussion on the point. |
