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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 674.96

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Nov 25 4:00 PM EST

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To: donald sew who wrote (22575)	8/10/1999 7:59:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Had problems logging in this morning so I am going to make a quick post before their server goes down again. Heinz, great post a few messages back, as always. For predictions???? I think it will all come down to how the NASDAQ reacts to 2500 this morning since futures are down and we should dip on the open. I have a trendline right around 2500 NAS that held the first attack thursday and should either hold and bounce or else fail and spur the next down leg. I fully expect it to fail and the market to continue down to the targets I set a while back such as SPX 1268, OEX 645, NASDAQ 2350, DOW 10200 etc. The Banking sector indexes BIX and BKX did bounce which I thought was a must situation so there is a bit of hope but bounces the last few weeks have been one day events and they could just as easily reverse back down. Inflation fears are mounting as evidenced by the XAU index and SLB's action yesterday. Oil is on the brink of another breakout and the TYX is showing interest rates could be heading to our targets 6.5% after now reaching our first targeted 6.25%. I still don't see a meltdown coming but who ever does. <g> I feel we should be getting some sort of bounce but it could be today or after the Fed meets. My indicators are hinting that the short term bounce may have come and gone already and this momentary sideways or slowing in the drop may have been the whole shooting match with an acceleration of the selling coming soon. I know this probably sounds like the market could go up, down or sideways but I am talking extreme short term here where my outlook is still as I said yesterday. I expect more downside to my targeted OEX 645 then a bounce IF there is a large volume spike and/or rapid drop showing some fear. The resulting bounce will probably be when the Fed meeting takes place on the 24th but if there is a rapid selloff, then it could come earlier. EDIT - I want to state that I put the most credence inmy OEX target since I have a convergence of trendlines forks etc on numerous charts pointing to 645 whereas my other index charts have a variety of targets depending on which lines I draw. My PSX for example could bounce at Don's targeted 1275 area, 1250 or even 1225. Almost every OEX chart I have points to 645 as the bounce target. I am personally using this chart - the OEX one - to base my trades right now. Also sorry for my site not being updated on time last night and the lack of time to update the P&F and 3 line charts but I am extremely busy with some things the last couple of weeks and will remain busy for the next week or so. I do plan on taking vacation soon so I will be able to contribute more then. Good Luck, Lee

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