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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 695.40+0.5%4:00 PM EST
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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (22570)8/10/1999 8:01:00 AM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Heinz,

My short-term technicals are getting back towards oversold again, but no CLASS BUY yet. If the market was to continue down 2-3 more days straight I would get some sort of a CLASS BUY signal. For the SPX, I have numerous support lines in the 1288-1275 range, with the most concentration near 1280. If 1275 is broken to the downside the next strong support area is around 1210-1220 and the 38% FIBINOCCI RETRACEMENT level from last OCT lows is around 1230.

My weekly technicals are all in the oversold region, and some very oversold.

I am still inclined to say that the downside for this week is limited and just retest the recent lows or just slightly lower. Then next week we could see some upside movement, but that should also be limited.

My short-term cycles are getting messed up/hard to read. Now I am getting a short-term top around AUG 20, which is also expiration day.
This revised schedule actually works better with the the statistics of the weekly performance in that expiration week is normally UP/FLAT, and that the week after expiration is normally down.

For this week, I feel that the support line at 1275 should hold. As for the upside into next week, I still see flatness/zig-zags to around 1320 with a slight chance of a 1-day/intraday surge to 1340 and maybe even 1350.

seeya

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