Thanks for digging up Allen's post. It reminds me how persuasive his arguments were. He was articulate, knowledgeable, brilliant and passionate about the future of WRS and other subjects. While, I'm not sure he was wrong, it does show how humbling trying to predict the future can be. At least his timing was off. Allen may have abandoned the thread because he didn't want to have responsibility for leading his followers over a cliff.
When viewed from a point 5 years from now, his $1.69 FY 2000 estimate versus the 0.69 consensus may become statistical noise. A lot of negatives have coincided here: change of business plan, Ablemann's resignation without a successor, Y2K spending, Internet stocks loosing their luster, the market shooting all immediate losers, analysts loosing their interest in the company, Allen's absence, some execution stumbles, MS entering big time. It's been a rough year for a great company.
But, with I2O heating up, design wins exploding, hopefully a new CEO and a cooperative stock market, we could still see at least some of Allen's predictions come true. |
