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Gold/Mining/Energy : BRE-X (ANTI-BRE-X CONSPIRACY THEORIES)

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To: mikesloan who wrote ()3/29/1997 1:43:00 PM
From: bob bundy   of 71
 
Okay, Mike - here it is.

Hassan and the Indo gov't decide they want a bigger slice of the pie.
Fact - Hasan, we know is close to Suharto and Freeport.

Check holes are done as part of DD process and oddly enough they come up empty. Result is of course property's value becomes questionable. Audit proves that there is an ore body but much smaller in size. Freeport indicates that they are still interested in doing a deal but because property has less reserves they would want a greater slice of the play - say 40%, thereby reducing Bre-x to 20%.

A couple of years from now as the property goes into production it is discovered that the reserves are as Bre-x originally stated. It is certainly not uncommon for grades and recovery rates to change from those which were estimated prior to production and what actually occurs during production.

The major flaw here is that Freeport and Strathcona have to be part of the game along with many others so I doubt this scenario.

Eveyone seems to believe in a conspiracy of some sort though. I have yet to see a plausible one suggested. Anybody?
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