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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc

ATHM 24.08

-3.1%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: ahhaha who wrote (13942)	8/10/1999 1:27:00 PM
From: Ron Dior	Read Replies (1) of 29970

<<Isn't it wiser to wait and see what develops on the cable front, if you weren't born with a silver spoon in your mouth?>> I don't feel that this would be wiser. Ahhaha, I am a user of both ATHM and AOL. ATHM has the speed, AOL has the toys. When EXCIT/ATHM gets the toys I will no longer need AOL along with millions. I guess you are right when you say I am "not being objective about cable deployment". I assume that it WILL develop and EXCITE/ATHM will give us worthy content. You must admit though that AOL needs to consider this as being a possibility also. Cable could be king just as easily as could not. <<AOL's business is growing and they have plenty to swallow. The complexity of administration goes up with the square of size and so do the costs, relative to revenues rising linearly. If revenues accelerate, costs rise at such a rate that you lose money. This is the rule of rapid growth. How can AOL take on any more immediately?>> This is why I feel AOL is better off merging or buying ATHM. It needs time to assimilate a website and the technology without skipping a beat. They would gain instant cashflow through the MSO's as a bonus. Also they would have T behind them to boot. Also if open access stayed closed for a while, other isp's would have to pay them. If they merely work a deal, they will need cash for development and alike. <<By the claim I made that they could get into cable is based on cost and possibility of entry. They aren't insurmountable. It would take concessions and partnerships but that's what ATHM has. AOL could buy HSAC or engage Road - Runner in various ways compatible with existing business relations with companies like Att.>> HSAC is an excellent thought, but if Cable does take off quicker than expected, they are dead in the water. This would be a huge gamble consider the head start that cable has. <<The recognition that cable is superior is going to take many years to become widespread. It already has taken too much time. I had your view two years ago.>> Ahhaha as usual it is difficult to argue your points for many are valid. Maybe two years from now my opinion will change also. Ron Dior

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