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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin
RMBS 95.53+0.7%Nov 28 12:59 PM EST

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To: unclewest who wrote (26836)8/10/1999 2:11:00 PM
From: Richard Habib  Read Replies (2) of 93625
 
Unclewest, trying to do bottom up analysis of sales is difficult with a company like RMBS. The visibility of design wins vs royalties for the large number of companies involved (many that will result in small revenue streams) is a daunting task. I think RMBS can be adequately analyzed using DRAM market estimates together with reasonable percent of market figures. You've done that but you always tend toward very optimistic numbers while I look at what I consider a reasonable range of numbers. I always like to keep in mind that investors are almost always too optimistic. Likewise market forecasts are very often optimistic.

Regarding PC mags opinions - corporations aren't going to buy RMBS initially because RMBS will be offered initially in the highest end machines. Although I've heard a few individuals say they are familiar with corporate buyers who will buy the highest end product but everything I've read indicates the majority of buyers - except consumer enthusiasts tend to buy just below the high end. I remain convinced that RMBS enabled product sales will be substantially influenced by the various mags and sites that rate systems. Rich
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