. . .ATHM:. . Kevin, I am speculating based on the competitive advantage that the market seems to wish to ignore here, for whatever reasons. AOL may be the current leader, but given a choice between AOL's telephone dial-up on your PC where during the times you really want online [like evenings] you get lots of busy signals and ATHM's set-top box via cable modem at speeds 50 times faster and connected 24 hours per day. . .it is my contention that consumers will choose ATHM [or Roadrunner].
And with T's cable holdings filling warehouses with set-top boxes getting ready for the big launch, I believe that ATHM's hey day is AHEAD of it, whereas AOL is within 3 years of going the way of Prodigy and Compuserve. . . an alternative used by a core group, but no longer the main group.
And what is AOL doing to combat T? Well, they released news saying they were going to release news that would announce their broadband strategy. Uh. . . .we're still waiting on that. The way I figure, T has AOL under checkmate. Leaving AOL xDSL scraps, perhaps some wireless plays, but with very little cable modem options.
If you remember, the day MSFT sunk a half-billion into T, they threw in the towel. AOL should have done the same, but did not. . .perhaps out of pride. . .or whatever reasons.
I believe that AOL will be LEFT OUT of many of the mutual funds that helped it to reach dizzying heights by their sustained buying. I don't know if they will substitute ATHM for AOL, but I would.
Two weeks ago we saw the one-millionth customer using cable modems to access the internet. T has many millions of these on order.
So to answer your question, I see investors getting wise to the future of ATHM soon. . . it was easily one of the strongest of the high-fliers last year. . .and many still don't understand what it is they do. I think T will fortify ATHM to become the clear leader, by providing them with the full reaches of their holdings. . .such as deals with Liberty Digital for music. . .TVGuide, Newscorp and others.
I think that T will be in the 80's by the end of the year. . . and in January will nearly double. . .I think it will split in February/March and by mid-April we will have 2 shares near 100 or the equivalent of 200.
That's how I figure. . . .that's why I started my position here..
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