As an old Chechnya-Dagestan hand, let me say that I will be surprised -- or at least, very disappointed -- if THAT situation endures much longer. The point is that the reign of the "Islamic" (what a joke!) warlords is deeply distasteful to the majority of ordinary Chechen citizens, and is based almost purely on fear. In Dagestan, a very different sort of place, they come as aggressors.
The Russian Federation could conceivably fall apart, but not, in my opinion, because of "ethnic" problems, but because the government has become almost inconceivably detached from reality.
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