dennis,
I am glad that you made out today, it was a very interesting day. As soon as I saw AMZN arising from the carnage when the dow was down 130 I ought to have known. I wondered what the #$%%^ was up.
I am not at all convinced this is a bottom, it cannot be IMO. The big stocks havent fallen and the dow keeps getting bouyed the last minutes in the market. When one sees a 100 point move in 45 minutes do not try and tell me it was the little guys buying in on the bottom, that is nonsense. Just like Thursday and I think Tue or Mon of the previous week, buy programs are rescuing the indicies. I was watching the tick all day like I always do and it did not go positive (for more than a few minutes consecutively) until the last 15 minutes or so, then it goes from -550 to +500. I hate that, it tells me that the computer programs are keeping things from selling off. It seems that every day the dow and the s&p sell off in the mid morning to early afternoon, then get propped up at the end.
I am worried because as you and I know the selling will not stop until the towels are thrown in, the put call ratio goes haywire and the bears think they are getting control. As long as the market keeps getting rescued in the final moments I dont think we are done. Also keep in mind that intrest rates are at a near term high and the fed is in the rear view mirror. I think we have more to go, I need to see -1400 tick closing out the day and a close on the lows, then and when all the analysts start being bearish it is time.
The dow hasnt corrected yet, and if it doesnt I have no faith in how far we will bounce back.
I am also worried about the PPI #'s comming up Friday, if there is any sense of price increases we are going to be in pain. I cannot go long here, it is not worth 5 points in AMZN or 10 in EBAY to me. I am holding a near the money S&P put and have held it for an eternity (3-4 days) it really pissed me off when I saw the good ole relief rally come in the last part of the day.
One thing that is interesting, the futures finished 3.5 above FV. I also think CSCO will be sold off here, with a PE of 80 (including the recent earnings) and no real news in the future what can hold it up?
I am going to go looking to see what I can find that might be a reason we will see any kind of rally in the next week or two.
You see anything???
E
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