I HAVE FIGURED IT OUT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If you want to go to the thread where I posted this originally see <a href = "/~wsapi/investor/s-14111/reply-65">here</a>
Tony, I too believe this scenario to be very plausible!
I also think that the corrupt Indonesian government had a part in the whole deal. I think I can explain why it is that Dr Guzman did not sell his stock, simply because he did not commit suicide! I think that he was setup to fake the final drill results by the Indonesian goverment. Perhaps they threatened to kill his family if he did not do it, or if he talked? Of course they knew that he would eventually talk, so they killed him after he tainted the final results. Now, I am not purporting that this was done by many government officials, I think that it was the dictator, his family, and perhaps one of their close friends. So they kill Guzman, Bre-X stock plummets, the president makes a killing shorting Bre-X through an anonymous 3rd party (a close friend), Bre-x finds out that only the some of the samples were salted, the 'final' ones and blame Guzman for the saltings, the world thinks that Guzman was guilty of the crime and thus make sense of the suicide, some (not all) capital flows back into the country, the president then takes advantage of the vulnerable position that the Indonesian mining juniors find themselves in (How? I don't know how. You fill in here), and voila a perfect setup. A win-win-win situation for the Indonesian president.
Not only do they kill him, but they make him the scapegoat. Clean and simple.
Notice that I said that I think that Guzman did in fact taint the 'final' results. I want to clear up what I mean by the 'final' results. According to Tony, who posts on the thread referenced to above, the latest drill results were much higher in gold content than the previous drill samples.
Now listen carefully. Lets assume that this extortion had been going on for a while. This is what that means, the MOST RECENT bunch of drill holes really had NO GOLD (insignificant amounts) and Guzman faked the results thus tricking BRE-X into thinking that they had very good grades of gold when in fact there was none at all. Now keep in mind that Guzman said that these grades were much higher than the average grade to date. I'll shed some light on this a little later.
INMO Guzman was extorted by the dictator to PURPOSELY SALT the THE LAST BATCH OF DRILL HOLE SAMPLES in a manner that would make it stand out like a sore thumb (make these samples higher than the average grades to date). Thus, when Freeport decides to run a check of the samples, which the dictator knew they inevitably would, they choose to start their audit with the few samples that were anonmolous. It turns out that these are salted! Perfect, the dictator figured that Freeport would do what any other company would do, that is, check the most anomolous samples first, and they DID! The dictator and company figured that Freeport would make an announcement about their 'preliminary' results and that BRE-X would plummet as a result! They make money, damage BRE-Xs political power, and all without raising suspicions.
If my scenario is correct, then Freeport is innocent. That's logical sense they would otherwise be risking a loss of their credibility, which for a company that reputable would be stupid!
If my scenario is correct then this means that Guzman was also innocent, which is also logical, because he was an excellent geologist and had a lot more to lose than to gain by salting the samples. How do I justify this? First of all he couldn't have salted all the samples, I think we all agree on that. So why would he bother salting a few samples if this company had probably made him lots of money already! In other words, why risk so much for so little? Also don't you think that its too coincidential that the leading geologist for the Busang find would commit suicide??
If my scenario is correct then this means that Bre-X is also innocent. The executives for this group have very good reputations and stand by their claims. In fact the CEO said that perpaps they have overstated the results, which is consistent with what I have said about only a few of the samples being salted. It is consistent with the fact that the CEO is so sure that most of the gold is there.
If my scenario is correct then it would make sense of the fact that other companies such as that indonesian assay labs company and others had worked on the drill samples for Bre-X. How could they all be tricked??
If my scenario is correct, then it would be consistent of a government that is corrupt enough to extort, murder, and try to attain a greater share of the properties in dispute.
Project 2501
The Gh0st haCker |
