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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!

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To: Benjamin Ostrom who wrote (6050)8/10/1999 10:57:00 PM
From: Don Lloyd  Read Replies (3) of 10309
 
Benjamin -

(...I think we will beat the 16 cents. My guess is 22 cents. The profit as a percentage of revenue makes any significant upward volitility in revenues have a significant imact on EPS growth. My guess is that analysts are underestimating the revenue for this quarter. Just look at EPS growth on WIND vs. revenue growth. And the fact that they "missed" revenue last quarter...)

While anything is possible, 22 cents seems to be quite a stretch. Even 16 cents would be a 45% sequential quarterly increase and if combined with no new bad news should be more than satisfactory. The recent stock action would seem to indicate that 16 cents is not considered to be in the bag.

Although the current state of analyst guidance by management is open to question, exceeding expectations by 6 cents out of 16 would, under more normal circumstances, indicate a management problem.

Regards, Don

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