Hello Mr. Perfette:
I do not use TA other than for a summary gander to contrast with my own sentiments. However the 18-7-9 MACD looks like it is on the verge of a buying signal:
askresearch.com;{I Pq@Žõ
My sentiments for 1-2 months forward are 20% likelihood of trading at 60, 20% of hitting 30's, 80% of trading lower 40's, a few% trading at 70.
I think the domestic interest rates and the major currencies are in flux now and will have further impact on the market 1-2 months out. It is too early to tell if there will be a stronger dollar and higher rates or a weaker dollar and higher rates. Right now we have been overdue for a reflex rally in the markets due to all the gigabucks sloshing around. Market stasis with rates and currencies has yet to be realized and I expect some further volatilities until people settle in to a better idea of where valuations will settle out, short term.
I wished I would have unboxed at 42, then again at 44 or so this week. The rise is nice but a little unexpected, and I would expect the rest of this week to show if it will be sustained or if there will be erosion in pricing continuing. Longer term, barring any negative events of import, CTXS should be hitting new highs. For the short term, my impression is that buying in the low 40's would be healthy unless we get a serious selloff in the software stocks yet this year. I would be content to open the box in the low 40's, but it may be possible on a high volume day yet, to have a swing into the 30's. It is usually best to buy when investors are running for the exits and the long term outlook is upward. I have not seen that yet. There has been a gentle letdown after a peculiarly long straight line rise from 40 to 65. Time for a healthy break.
Best regards,
m |
