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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!

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To: Don Lloyd who wrote (6060)8/11/1999 2:45:00 PM
From: Richard Habib  Read Replies (1) of 10309
 
Don, I tend to average down a bit since these days single digit growth is functionally equivalent to flat in the market.

Q2 99 was .14 so if we assume .13 that would be -7%, if you assume .15 than 7% year over year.

Q3 99 was .17, analyst calling for .19 for 11% yoy

Q4 99 was .20, analyst calling for .23 for 15% yoy.

Short term yoy growth is 6.3% using the .13 result and 11% using .15 result. Wouldn't be shocked to see analyst walk future estimates down a penny or two given, other versions of TMS hasn't shipped and the new product license structure. Also increased spending if H&Q is to be believed. Jerry didn't comment on future expenses but we know that with the new business model being put into place this would be likely.

Thus near term, close to single digit bottom line growth which I consider relatively flat for a software company.

I would expect long term growth to return to the 20-25% level IAW analysts comments but I wonder if returning to 40% top line growth in the next few years is possible. And of course that is the main factor determining profitablity of an investment in Wind. Rich
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