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Biotech / Medical : Medtronic (MDT)
MDT 99.81-0.9%3:59 PM EST

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To: Flan who wrote (33)3/30/1997 4:33:00 AM
From: macaluso   of 687
 
I have owned this stock for the last 4 years and
consider it to be one of the best managed companies out
there. Besides my initial investment I buy more shares
every month through their reinvestment plan, the lower
it goes the more I can buy, lately shareholders seem a
little confused about the company, so here is my opinion
on the short and long term of the company.
At 30x earnings the stock at these levels is overvalued
but so is GDT at 70x which is one of their competitor.
If anyone is looking to make a killing by buying this
stock in the $60 I think the upside potential is only
70-75 whereas the downside could be in the mid 40s. The
company obviously is not growing at the rate that
everyone was accostumed to only because it is very hard
to substain the 30-35% growth once a company has a big
capitalization. That is why the stock hasn't shown any
significant move in the last year, its called a time
correction, it happened to WMT 4 years ago when their
stock was selling at over 30x earning and instead of
ralling with the rest of the market the stock has been
in a trading range ever since. The same thing is
happening to MDT it will stay at a trading range from
here on until it gets from overvalued to fairly valued.
If I would have to make an initial investment I would
wait until the stock falls in the mid 50s if earnings
come out short like last quarter the stock could sell
off again. Last year when the stock was downgraded in
january by an analyst it went down to the mid 40s only
to rally back up. So short term this might not be a
great investment. Now the long term outlook.
Like I said before I am not selling this stock I buy
more every month, the big money on this company was made
from 93 to 96 now the company will grow at a slower rate
and so will the stock its not going to split every year
like it used to but I feel very confident that their
business will be around for a very long long long time.
You might not get rich quick with this company now but
you also not going to get poor. So if anyone is looking
to buy an A+ company (for the long term) with an
exceptional management team, great products and a great
future this stock should be added in your list.
I don't know when the stock is going to go down 10
points or up 10 points because this is not a stock that
I trade at all, so it doesn't make any difference for me
if I will buy it at 50 60 or 70 I know that 10 years
from now it will be much higher than it is now but what
I know is that you should cut your losses and keep your
winners. This is a winner.
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