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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (56099)8/11/1999 3:12:00 PM
From: TRINDY  Read Replies (1) of 86076
 
Heinz--In a recent reading, A/D were 1729/1188 on NYSE with advancing vol 382 to 148 declining. The TRIN on the NYSE is a very bullish 0.50. NAZDAQ was even stronger on advancing vol: 469/146. This could be the turnaround that we've been saying would materialize soon. Doubt that it has far up to go, but could see another 4-5% up before things get dicey again. Yesterday at about 2 pm may have been the reversal we were expecting.

I've been watching these FED statements and they are directly designed to support the market. The FED is, indeed, walking a tight rope because a rapid decline in equity values could very well impact the real economy, sending it into a recessionary tailspin. They've got to manage the market down on a gradual basis, if they can. They shouldn't have let it get out of control in the first place. For example, they could have raised margin requirements when the situation first became "irrationally exuberant." They didn't and now they have to face the prospects of the potential real impact of a huge market slide.

Hard to go long here with so many of my indicators pointing down so strongly, but we could be in for a distinct change in trend, at least for a short while. This sideways to upward motion could last for about trading 10 days. By the end of this month, one will want to be very cautious on the long side, indeed. So for the time being, I'm playing for a repeat of last year's action. This play hasn't disappointed since mid June, when I went long in a big way.

Happy trading.
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